Testing and Understanding the Contra Bet System
You have probably already read our test of the d’Alembert system. Well, there is also another system that we can test together today. It’s a system that is based on d’Alembert, and it’s the Contra Bet or Reverse d’Alembert. Now, we would like to first start by helping you understand the differences between the two. To this end, we are going to use practical examples. In the end, we think that the Contra Bet System is still based on luck, but it gives you a chance to win a big win – which should still be taken with a caveat. Let’s see how all of this works.
How Does the Contra Bet System Work?
The Contra Bet System is another progressive system. This means that it will focus on even money bets such as Even/Odd, Red/Black, and Low/High, and that is pretty much it. First, we need to pick a base amount – let’s say £10. Then we need to spin, and if we win, we will increase the betting amount by £10. If we lose – we will return to £10. We always return to £10 if we end up losing. Basically, like in d’Alembert’s case, we recommend using 1% of your total bankroll as your base.
You bet £10, and you lose. So, you continue betting £10.
You bet £10, and you win, so you raise your bet.
You now bet £20, and you win. So, you raise your bet.
You now bet £30, and you win. You raise your bet.
You bet £40 and lose. You lower your bet by £10 and bet £30 next time.
How We Tested Contra Bet System
So, we decided to take the system for a test run and see what it has to offer. Naturally, the results were indeed very pleasing. We gave all three players budgets from £500 to £1000, a different basic bet to follow, and set out to see what the results would be. Here is what we found out.
|Player #||Bankroll||Basic bet|
Here are the results. This is what the first player managed to score:
As you are able to tell, the first player ended his sequence at turn £170 with only £5 left. He did not have enough money to continue the progression. He did get a very strong result at the beginning but then ended up experiencing a rapid decline which he didn’t prevent on time. Normally, a player who wants to win should probably quit if he sees that he is dropping rapidly.
The second player performed as such:
The second player also was off to a good start, and he then started to drop. His progression started to decline fairly quickly. He lasted for good 469 moves, though and managed to finish with a £30 bankroll – still not enough to continue.
In the case of the third player, he finished the game around spin 242 and had only £15 left on the progression.
As you can see, despite the strong peaks that all three players clocked in, the bottom line is definitely a negative return which is to be expected. Now, you maybe think that d’Alembert is a bit better than the Contra System. This resembles the way how Martingale and Paroli (Reverse Martingale) differ as well. The difference is that one of the systems is positive and the other negative. That is pretty much what determines bigger chances of success in the long term.
What to Watch Out for in Contra Bet
Just like with other systems, there are things that you need to watch out for in the Contra d’Alembert system.
For example, the long-run progression of this system is negative - this means that you will end up losing in the end if you stick around for way too long. The good news is that you can definitely stop this by making sure that you quit while you are ahead – usually, this comes early in the progression, but it’s all down to luck, so you have to consider these pitfalls after all. It does take time to get results, there is no doubt about this.
Final Word about Contra d’Alembert
So, what we found out about the Contra Bet system in this simulation is definitely very interesting. We took three players with different bet sizes and bankrolls. The general trend during this system is that the bankroll is going to head down precipitously after reaching a peak before that. That is the time that you need to take advantage of this and quit while you are ahead.
So, when using Contra d’Alembert, or even d’Alembert, it will be important to overcome your desire to continue playing and stop at the right moment. Of course, finding the right moment to stop cannot be too easy if you are out to have fun. That is why you need to just try and decide for yourself. The D’Alembert regular strategy suggests that you must be patient, but Contra D’Alembert suggests that as soon as you hit that big number, you must wrap up your gameplay!
The good news is that our test indicated that it would take around 200 rounds before you can expect to lose big money. So, there is no rapid downward progression which is very good and can buy you peace of mind when you think about it. It’s still advisable to approach everything very carefully and always remember the lessons you have learned here. You are free to always reference this sheet and strategy testing so that you know a little better what to expect.
If you are not sure if you have reached your peak, just reference the graphs really quick – they offer you the facts, which is that you are unlikely to hit and score much higher than around 25% of your bankroll, more or less.
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